RISEBALL REPORT
So you don't swing under it.What every base-out situation is worth in D1 softball.
How many runs a team scores, on average, from each of the 24 base and out situations to the end of the inning, built from 1,135,218 plate appearances in 254,628 half-innings of D1 play-by-play, 2021 to 2023.
Leadoff, bases empty0.64runs the rest of the inning · scores 31% of the time
Runner on 1st, 0 outs1.15a leadoff walk is worth 0.50 runs
Runner on 3rd, 1 out69%chance she scores · 1.10 runs expected
Bases loaded, 0 outs2.81runs expected · scores 87% of the time
The table
Runs expected from here to the end of the inning
Find the bases and the outs. The number is how many runs an average D1 lineup scored from that spot through the third out. Switch to chance to score to see how often at least one run came home.
| Situation | 0 outs | 1 out | 2 outs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases empty | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.12 |
| Runner on 1st | 1.15 | 0.66 | 0.28 |
| Runner on 2nd | 1.36 | 0.83 | 0.38 |
| Runner on 3rd | 1.69 | 1.10 | 0.45 |
| 1st and 2nd | 1.87 | 1.14 | 0.52 |
| 1st and 3rd | 2.23 | 1.47 | 0.67 |
| 2nd and 3rd | 2.33 | 1.59 | 0.68 |
| Bases loaded | 2.81 | 1.87 | 0.88 |
The sacrifice bunt
Bunt to move a runner from second, not from first
With a runner on first and nobody out, teams that bunted scored 1.00 runs the rest of the inning. Teams that swung away scored 1.17. The bunt did not even raise the chance of getting one run home: 48% against 49%.
With a runner on second and nobody out, the bunt still costs runs, but it raises the chance of scoring from 64% to 70%. Late in a close game, when one run decides it, that trade is worth making.
These compare what happened after real bunt attempts, failed ones included, against every other plate appearance in the same spot. Weaker hitters bunt more often, so for your nine-hole hitter the bunt looks somewhat better than the average here.
Runner on 1st, nobody out
Swung away · 67,2461.17 runs · 49%
Bunted · 12,1261.00 runs · 48%
Bunting costs 0.17 runs and barely moves the chance of scoring (-1 points).
Runner on 2nd, nobody out
Swung away · 12,7401.37 runs · 64%
Bunted · 1,7221.29 runs · 70%
Bunting costs 0.08 runs but adds 6 points to the chance of scoring.
1st and 2nd, nobody out
Swung away · 17,9291.89 runs · 69%
Bunted · 3,6681.75 runs · 70%
Bunting costs 0.14 runs and barely moves the chance of scoring (+2 points).
Stealing
D1 runners are safe 82% of the time. Most steals clear the bar.
break-even success ratedashed line = how often D1 runners are safe
A steal pays off when the runs gained by making it outweigh the runs lost by getting thrown out. Stealing second with nobody out needs a 79% success rate to break even. D1 runners made it 82% of the time from 2021 to 2023, per the box scores.
The bar is highest for a steal of third with two outs. A runner on second can already score on a single, so third adds little, and getting thrown out ends the inning.
Run values
A walk is worth 76% of a single
Each result is worth the runs it scored plus the change in the table above. A walk adds 0.42 runs and a single 0.55. A strikeout costs 0.36, only slightly more than an out on a ball in play (0.33), which sometimes moves a runner up. Double plays are counted on their own.
For hitters this is the case for working counts. For pitchers it says a walk hurts about three quarters as much as a single.
How it was built
Method
- Source: D1 play-by-play from the softballR-data archive of stats.ncaa.org, 2021 to 2023. The play text is replayed play by play to track outs and which bases are occupied.
- Runs to the end of the inning come from the scoreboard, not the parse, so a misread play cannot invent or erase a run.
- Innings 1 through 6 and the top of the 7th. The bottom of the 7th can end early, and extra innings start with a runner on second. 94% of half-innings replayed cleanly from first pitch to third out. In the rest, plays are kept up to the first one the replay could not follow.
- The archive leaves out most stolen bases (it has 1,947 of the 45,626 in the box scores) and most wild-pitch advances. A runner who stole second is sometimes still counted on first until the next play moves her, which nudges the runner-on-first values up a little. Steal success rates come from the box scores for that reason. The table will be rebuilt from full 2026 play-by-play.
- Bunt attempts are plate appearances whose play text says bunt, including bunt singles and failed sacrifices.