UT Arlington, prepared for Tarleton State

RISEBALLANALYTICS

Series outlook

Your odds, game by game

Game 1 · Sat Apr 29

38%

your chance to win

Their likely starter: Jessica Adams ERA− 67 · started game 1 in 4 of 6 series
Your likely starter: Tristan Bridges ERA− 124 · 2 of 6
Expected runs: 3.8 to 4.9

Game 2 · Sat Apr 29

58%

your chance to win

Their likely starter: Gracie Bumpurs ERA− 116 · started game 2 in 3 of 6 series
Your likely starter: Grace Garcia ERA− 102 · 3 of 6
Expected runs: 5.1 to 4.3

Game 3 · Sun Apr 30

38%

your chance to win

Their likely starter: Jessica Adams ERA− 67 · started game 3 in 4 of 6 series
Your likely starter: Tristan Bridges ERA− 124 · 2 of 6
Expected runs: 3.8 to 4.9

Series41% to win itat UT Arlington

33%

42%

16%

SweepWin 2 of 3Win 1 of 3Swept

From the Riseball ratings: schedule-adjusted offense and defense for both teams plus a home edge. Backtested on 71,278 D1 games, the base ratings' probabilities matched how often teams actually won within 2 points. The adjustment for each game's likely starters is new and not yet part of that backtest.

Game plan

Where UT Arlington can be beaten

When you hit

Attacking the UT Arlington staff

First time through
Get to the starter before the third trip
Their starters allow a .819 OPS the first time through the order (D1 .669) and .781 the second time (D1 .695). By the third trip they are close to average (.724, D1 .700).
Two strikes
Two strikes is not a crisis
Just 20% of hitters who reach two strikes end up striking out (D1 33%). Keep battling; this staff rarely finishes hitters off.
Count leverage
Their staff falls behind early
Only 52% of their first pitches are strikes (D1 57%). Hitters can take strike one and still expect to hit ahead in the count.
First inning
Score in the first
They allow 0.98 first-inning runs per game (D1 0.69).
Contact
Little swing and miss
Hitters miss on 13% of swings against them (D1 17%). Shorten up and put the ball in play; this staff wins by contact, not by strikeouts.
Tamya Waiters
Make Tamya Waiters throw strikes
Tamya Waiters starts 39% of hitters with a strike and reaches three balls on 25% of them. Take until she proves she can find the zone.

When you pitch

Attacking the UT Arlington lineup

Strike one
They take the first pitch
They swing at only 25% of first pitches (D1 33%). Steal strike one with your most reliable strike.
Late innings
They finish strong
1.98 runs per game in innings 5 to 7 (D1 1.50). Decide before the game how far your starter goes and who gets the last six outs.
First inning
Slow out of the gate
They score 0.40 runs per game in the first inning (D1 0.67). Your starter can attack early and settle in.
Runners in scoring position
Dangerous with runners on
They hit .300 with runners in scoring position (D1 .271, 263 PA) and .241 with the bases empty. Pitch around the hot bat with first base open.
Two strikes
Hard to put away
Only 31% of their two-strike plate appearances end in a strikeout (D1 36%). Expect long at-bats; plan the out pitch rather than chasing the strikeout.

On the bases and on defense

Running, bunting, fielding

Behind the plate
Balls in the dirt get away
0.35 passed balls per game (D1 0.17). Runners should be ready on anything low.
Defense
Make them field it
1.40 errors per game (D1 1.11).
Bunt defense
First and second, nobody out: they swing
They bunt 9% of the time there (D1 18%).
Bunt defense
They rarely bunt a runner from first
With a runner on first and nobody out, they bunt 9% of the time (D1 16%). Corners can play back.

Percentile vs 306 D1 teams · from play-by-play

Approach and situations

Their hitters: approach and situations

First-pitch swing rate25%

D1 avg 33%

Swing and miss17%

D1 avg 19%; share of swings missed

Strikeouts after two strikes31%

D1 avg 36%

Reach a three-ball count22%

D1 avg 20%

Pitches per plate appearance3.78

D1 avg 3.71

Leadoff hitter on base33%

D1 avg 35%

AVG, runners in scoring position.300

D1 avg .271 · 263 PA

Bunt rate, runner on 1st, 0 outs9%

D1 avg 16% · 74 chances

Bunt rate, 1st and 2nd, 0 outs9%

D1 avg 18% · 23 chances

Share of runs scored with two outs41%

D1 avg 40%

Their pitchers and defense

First-pitch strike rate52%

D1 avg 57%

Swing and miss induced13%

D1 avg 17%

Put-away rate after two strikes20%

D1 avg 33%

Three-ball counts allowed20%

D1 avg 21%; higher = more

Leadoff hitters allowed on38%

D1 avg 36%; higher = worse

Errors per game1.40

D1 avg 1.11; higher = more

Passed balls per game0.35

D1 avg 0.17; higher = more

Pitch-by-pitch numbers come from the 1,010 UT Arlington plate appearances and 1,085 opponent plate appearances whose pitch sequence was recorded.

When the runs come

Scoring by inning

Runs scored per gameRuns allowed per gameD1 average

Scored, by inning

Allowed, by inning

Starters by trip through the lineup

How their starters hold up

Their starters	PA	OBP	SLG	OPS	D1 OPS	vs D1	K%	D1 K%
First time through	303	.376	.442	.819	.669	+0.150	9%	19%
Second time	224	.348	.432	.781	.695	+0.086	10%	16%
Third time and later	151	.318	.406	.724	.700	+0.023	7%	14%

Pitch by pitch

Their staff, pitcher by pitcher

Pitcher	IP	PA	PA with pitches	1st-pitch strike	Whiff	Put-away	3-ball	P/PA	OBP	SLG
Jessica Adams	148.1	636	462	55%	13%	19%	19%	3.59	.333	.410
Gracie Bumpurs	99.0	382	311	54%	17%	24%	17%	3.56	.361	.439
Tamya Waiters	37.1	150	139	39%	9%	17%	25%	3.80	.420	.508
D1 average				57%	17%	33%	21%	3.71

Plate appearances are matched to pitchers from box-score order and batters faced, in games where the two agree exactly.

Percentile vs 306 D1 teams · from box scores

Team profile

At the plate and on the bases

Run scoring, schedule-adjusted3.92 R/G

vs an average D1 defense

Power (ISO).131

D1 avg .128

Home runs per game0.74

Walk + HBP rate10.0%

D1 avg 11.1%

Strikeout rate14.0%

D1 avg 15.8%; higher = strikes out more

Steal attempts per game1.60

53 SB, 16 CS

Steal success77%

D1 avg 82%

Sac bunts per game0.56

24 total

In the circle and behind the plate

Run prevention, schedule-adjusted4.38 RA/G

vs an average D1 offense; higher = better

Staff strikeout rate8.0%

D1 avg 15.9%

Staff walk + HBP rate11.1%

D1 avg 11.0%; higher = more free passes

Opponent steal attempts per game1.21

how often teams ran on them

Caught-stealing rate19%

share of opponent attempts thrown out

Last 15 games

Projected lineup

Most frequent hitter in each spot over the last 15 games. 35 different batting orders in 43 games.

#HitterAVG/OBP/SLGAdj.NotesStarts here

1Hukill, ReaganLF.287/.360/.410OPS+ 932 HR · 13-16 SB · 5 SH13 of 15
2Neises, MarleyCF.387/.425/.613OPS+ 1556 HR · 11-15 SB · 5 SH15 of 15
3Westbrook, MorganRF.283/.376/.424OPS+ 1042 HR15 of 15
4Smith, MeaganDH.295/.375/.551OPS+ 1236 HR · 3-3 SB11 of 15
5Wideman, SophieC.235/.291/.435OPS+ 815 HR7 of 15
6Cortemelia, KimberSS.255/.352/.330OPS+ 781 HR · 3-3 SB8 of 15
7Castruita, Zaia2B.230/.287/.283OPS+ 464 SH14 of 15
8Franklin, Lindsey1B.262/.429/.512OPS+ 1367 HR14 of 15
9Hampton, Alaina3B.196/.245/.326OPS+ 431 HR · 2-3 SB · 2 SH15 of 15

Usage and rotation

Pitching staff

Pitchers per game2.0
Starter avg IP4.0
Finished wins in reliefAdams, Jessica (7), Bumpurs, Gracie (4), Waiters, Tamya (1)

Starters by game of the series across 6 conference series. Same-day doubleheader order follows NCAA game IDs.

Game 1

Adams, Jessica4
Bumpurs, Gracie2

Game 2

Bumpurs, Gracie3
Adams, Jessica2
Waiters, Tamya1

Game 3

Adams, Jessica4
Waiters, Tamya2

Staff, 5+ innings

Pitcher	App	GS	IP	IP share	IP/GS	ERA	ERA−	WHIP	K%	BB+HBP%	K% vs exp	HR	Short rest
Adams, Jessica	36	22	148.1	52%	4.8	2.78	62	1.43	8.7%	8.3%	-5.5	13	21
Bumpurs, Gracie	31	12	99.0	35%	3.6	5.23	121	1.82	7.2%	9.9%	-7.3	15	16
Waiters, Tamya	17	9	37.1	13%	2.4	8.06	182	2.57	7.7%	22.1%	-6.1	3	8

20+ plate appearances

Hitters

Hitter	Pos	Slot	G/GS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+	2B	HR	K%	BB+HBP%	SB-ATT	SH
Hukill, Reagan	RF/LF	1	42/39	141	.287	.360	.410	93	9	2	9.9%	9.9%	13-16	5
Wideman, Sophie	C	5	41/27	127	.235	.291	.435	81	6	5	15.0%	7.9%	0-0	0
Castruita, Zaia	2B	7	43/41	126	.230	.287	.283	46	4	0	4.0%	7.1%	0-2	4
Neises, Marley	CF/LF	2	42/36	118	.387	.425	.613	155	4	6	13.6%	5.9%	11-15	5
Franklin, Lindsey	1B	8	39/35	113	.262	.429	.512	136	0	7	9.7%	23.0%	0-0	1
Westbrook, Morgan	RF/LF	3	36/31	110	.283	.376	.424	104	3	2	15.5%	13.6%	0-1	1
Cortemelia, Kimber	3B/SS	2	37/35	108	.255	.352	.330	78	4	1	11.1%	13.0%	3-3	0
Smith, Meagan	DH/DP	4	29/23	89	.295	.375	.551	123	2	6	9.0%	11.2%	3-3	1
Brienesse, Paris	3B/SS	6	36/23	85	.287	.329	.375	85	2	1	22.4%	5.9%	10-13	0
Hill , Nicole	CF/RF	9	30/19	57	.200	.273	.200	23	0	0	28.1%	8.8%	7-7	2
Hampton, Alaina	3B/1B	9	31/26	51	.196	.245	.326	43	1	1	23.5%	5.9%	2-3	2
Sgambelluri, Ashleigh	SS	7	29/19	51	.178	.245	.200	13	1	0	15.7%	7.8%	1-2	2
Erickson, Jadyn	LF/CF	8	33/14	41	.225	.225	.225	20	0	0	22.0%	0.0%	3-4	1

Run margin by game

Season so far

Win margin (above the line)Loss margin (below)Conference series

Game-by-game table

Date		Opponent	Opp. rank	Conf.	Result
02/10	vs	Texas Tech	42		W 4-3
02/11	vs	Tulsa	113		W 4-3
02/11	vs	Texas Tech	42		L 0-4
02/12	vs	Tulsa	113		W 3-0
02/17	at	Kentucky	25		W 4-2
02/17	at	North Texas	63		L 0-8
02/18	vs	Sam Houston	114	Yes	L 8-15
02/18	at	McNeese	60		L 0-8
02/19	vs	South Dakota	165		W 10-0
02/23	at	Texas St.	70		L 3-4
02/23	vs	UTSA	223		W 4-3
02/24	vs	Kansas	68		L 0-14
02/24	at	Colorado St.	104		L 3-4
02/25	at	Texas St.	70		L 5-6
02/28	at	Baylor	31		L 0-8
03/03	vs	Rider	218		W 9-2
03/03	vs	Kansas City	282		L 4-5
03/04	vs	Kansas City	282		W 11-4
03/04	vs	Rider	218		W 2-1
03/05	vs	Lamar University	180		L 0-2
03/08	vs	Texas	8		L 3-12
03/17	at	Southern Utah	272	Yes	W 10-3
03/17	at	Southern Utah	272	Yes	W 15-10
03/18	at	Southern Utah	272	Yes	L 3-4
03/22	vs	Baylor	31		L 0-5
03/24	at	California Baptist	124	Yes	L 2-3
03/24	at	California Baptist	124	Yes	L 4-5
03/25	at	California Baptist	124	Yes	L 1-12
03/29	vs	North Texas	63		W 3-2
03/31	vs	Utah Tech	57	Yes	W 4-3
03/31	vs	Utah Tech	57	Yes	L 1-17
04/01	vs	Utah Tech	57	Yes	W 8-5
04/09	at	SFA	122	Yes	W 6-3
04/10	at	SFA	122	Yes	W 3-2
04/10	at	SFA	122	Yes	L 0-3
04/12	at	Oklahoma St.	5		L 0-6
04/14	vs	Abilene Christian	226	Yes	L 1-8
04/15	vs	Abilene Christian	226	Yes	W 16-7
04/15	vs	Abilene Christian	226	Yes	L 3-7
04/19	at	McNeese	60		L 2-6
04/21	at	New Mexico St.	139	Yes	W 5-3
04/21	at	New Mexico St.	139	Yes	W 7-6
04/22	at	New Mexico St.	139	Yes	L 5-6

Your odds, game by game

Where UT Arlington can be beaten

When you hit

Get to the starter before the third trip

Two strikes is not a crisis

Their staff falls behind early

Score in the first

Little swing and miss

Make Tamya Waiters throw strikes

When you pitch

They take the first pitch

They finish strong

Slow out of the gate

Dangerous with runners on

Hard to put away

On the bases and on defense

Balls in the dirt get away

Make them field it

First and second, nobody out: they swing

They rarely bunt a runner from first

Approach and situations

Their hitters: approach and situations

Their pitchers and defense

Scoring by inning

Scored, by inning

Allowed, by inning

How their starters hold up

Their staff, pitcher by pitcher

Team profile

At the plate and on the bases

In the circle and behind the plate

Projected lineup

Pitching staff

Staff, 5+ innings

Hitters

Season so far